Downing of Russian Su-24 in Turkey
By now, many readers of Evolution Consulting's work, and quite honestly most of the world is aware of the downing of the Russian Su-24 Fencer in Turkish airspace.
We have been somewhat late (by our standards) in compiling analysis on this event. One of the reasons is that while we have seen "conflicting information" before in our research, there was something unusual about this most recent event. From aircraft speed and location, to the who, what, why, and how, the information that we have been seeing is a hodge podge of semi conflicting stories.
In fact, even using the Evolution 4.0 system to analyze the available information, the first thing we would like to point to is the following:
From Wikileaks / Rogue Money
Journalists: Learn to do basic math. Look at Turkey's statement to UN: 1.15 miles / 17 seconds x 60 x 60 = 243 miles/hour = 391 km/hour
All other information aside, we can find no practical reason why an Su-24 Fencer (a variable geometry wing / high speed / high altitude cold war era medium bomber) would be flying at effectively near stall speed in a combat zone. In fact the Su-24M and variants are designed implicitly for higher speed flight. Based upon research and expert information, the Su-24 (because of design) exhibits many of the same "quirks" inherent to modern business jets (such as the Lear and Gulfstream) at lower speed flight: Lateral yawing and heading drift. The reason aircraft such as business jets and military aircraft experience low speed flight quirks lies in the "give and take" nature of aircraft design. Often times, aircraft designed specifically for high altitude high speed flight have less than admirable handling characteristics at low speed. This is a by-product of optimizing the airframe design for high speed flight. Even with the variable geometry sweep-wing of the Su-24, there is no plausible reason that a pilot would fly such an airframe at such low speed directly through an AO (Area of Operation).
Apart from that purely mathematical based information, some additional questions arise: For instance, why would Turkish F-16's want to try and take out a Russian Su-24 when they know full well that Russia has Chinese backing. Evolution Consulting using the Evolution 4.0 system has come up with the following two possibilities. Again, we will say that based upon the available information, we have had to do a lot of "filling in the blanks".
Firstly, we have to look to what has recently been referred to as the "red headed step child" of the middle east: Israel. The only possible upside for them to even be remotely involved in taking down a Russian plane is to sabotage potential alliances in the region. Most notably between turkey and Russia. They are seeing their sphere of influence perpetually shrink and become marginalized in the middle east (especially now with Russian incursion). Whether or not they were directly involved or involved by proxy is an unknown. However, as we so often do at Evolution Consulting, we work with the information available at any given time. Turkey showing aggression towards Russia could in theory slow down the Russian advance in the Middle East somewhat, though again, for how long is probably minimal. The last thing Israel wants to see in that region is the strengthening of middle eastern nations around it. Especially strengthening with Chinese and Russian backing / sovereign partnerships. Therefore, any effort to de-rail alliances and cohesion in the middle east would be to their benefit. Whether or not we are speaking about a pro-Israel faction within turkey or a purely outside operation is not known at this time and not something that we are going to speculate on.
Additionally, what could be seen there could also be construed as another Israeli attempt to start a "world war three" type scenario. Once again, as several have stated before, Russia has proven too well informed thus far to take the bait. By remaining relatively calm and diplomatic, the Eastern bloc nations have proven to be the worst nightmare of any group trying to start anything that might be mistaken for world war three. Given the intelligence information that Evolution 4.0 has indicated Russian PM Vladimir Putin could have, starting a "war of perception" with Russia could (and would) prove geopolitically suicidal for Israel and factions within the US that are pro-Israel.
Perhaps more interesting than the isolated incident of a Turkish F-16 Viper (export bloc version of the USAF F-16 Falcon) shooting down an Su-24 is the visible rift forming in terms of overall middle eastern policy direction. The team at Rogue Money has done a masterful job of illustrating in detail the various economic and military components that are at hand now. Most notable amongst which is the fact that for the first time in a very long time, the United States does not have a (CVN) carrier battle group in the Persian Gulf. Perhaps more significant than that is the myriad of other nations that do have war-ships and a naval presence in the Persian gulf (up to and including the French, with the carrier DeGalle).
While we could speak ad-nauseam about the details of the incident involving the Turkish F-16 as well as the events at the Bataclan, we have instead turned our research to the following: “The big picture”. Because of the unique way that the Evolution 4.0 system works, one of our specialties is in fact ultra-macro level global level forecasting. As such, we often hear about “sides”. Some it alternative non corporate media refer to the “cabal”, the “new world order”, or a myriad of other catchy taglines. The reality is that we at Evolution Consulting have chosen to put in the necessary CPU time to answer a very simple question: what are the “sides”. After all, any potential conflict requires “sides”. Those familiar with any kind of corporate / main stream news will notice that there is almost always the predictable “good side / bad side” narrative (eg: ISIS, Al-Nursa, terrorists). What we are seeing now through initial research is that there is certainly more than one side. Finding the commonalities between them may shed more light onto various agendas or goals of said sides.
With that in mind, one of the things we will be doing in the December edition of Wirehaus is delving a bit into the “time line” associated with various geopolitical events that have taken place over the last year. Incidentally that would be part of our initial “big picture” research into global events. We are excited to share the information we have and the information that we are still compiling at the time of the writing of this commentary piece.
Also in the coming December edition of Wirehaus, we will be offering some shorter term investment ideas for those looking to grow their capital in the current global / capital market environments. Our team is particularly proud of that segment.
