Trump 2016: Brokered Convention Analysis
Trump Contested Convention
So here we are, heading into general election territory with Trump still as the front runner amongst potential GOP nominees. But first, the looming specter of a potential "brokered convention" possibility still remains for "the Donald". While we are the first to tell our readers and listeners that we forecast politics only for the potential economic ramifications thereof (and admittedly for some fun also), there is certainly something different about this election cycle. In fact, some would say its a 1968 redux type of election cycle. Though possible, we tend to disagree. There is a certain palpable difference in the air about this election that makes even the often cynical team at Evolution Consulting go "hmm".
Firstly, much of main stream news has already moved onto the possibility of a "brokered convention", which in plain speak means that the RNC "didn’t like" the outcome of the primary season. Something about that whole "democracy / popular vote thing" didn't quite sit right with them. (Even with the admittedly convoluted system of delates et al.) While we do all we can here to remain emotionless and politically atheistic, we will once again be the first to admit, there really is something different about this one.
We ran a few cycles of Evolution 4.0 to analyze possible outcomes of the "brokered convention" option (amongst others), and in keeping true to data that we have already seen will say as follows: Trump wins either way. We have been saying this for some time. He has already done a tremendous amount of "damage" in terms of changing the political landscape and effectively tossing lit matches into a lake of social gasoline. We dare say one of the most effective social experiments that American politics has ever experienced. We say "Trump wins either way" predicated upon the following political analysis:
Potential Outcome 1: Brokered Convention, Ted Cruz gets the nomination as GOP general election candidate.
All right, well how does Trump win in that situation. What the "establishment" did is make him a legend. "The guy that got screwed out of the nomination". Lets be realistic for a second and say that Trump (in addition to being a lot smarter than his vocabulary would occasionally suggest), also knows how to put on a show. Better than most in fact. Getting "screwed" out of an election would only add to his renegade popularity and "see the system doesn’t really work anymore" message. In other words, his support base would likely grow and strengthen giving him even more of a following than he already has (and make those that follow him already even more fiercely loyal). Additionally, he would likely re-gain tremendous support from people that normally would either A: not have voted for him or B: not have voted at all.
They would also be "letting him off the metaphorical leash completely" so to speak. As of now he has had to at least semi-play by the RNC / Republican Party's rules. Or at least give something of an illusion that he is. If he has the delegates (which it looks like he will), and the popular vote, not choosing him would mean he has every possible logical reason to go fully independent. Once again, the fact that he would run as an independent candidate means that A: he gets to play by his own rules, B: commandeers 2/3rds of republican votes, C: is free to choose his own running mate, and D: becomes even more of a novelty than he already is (more votes). Based upon Evolution 4.0 information, the support he would get from people is tremendous. It adds to the "buck the system" image of an already renegade candidate. In such a situation, it is according to Evolution 4.0 that Chris Christie would be his chosen running mate at which point that is metaphorically a dynamite ticket.
We should point out that we have considered the option of "ahh, its all part of the show" type of thing, but the reality is the desperation of the "establishment" to stop him is becoming terribly obvious. In fact, much of it is backfiring on the establishment. The establishment type career politicians when putting on even a staged show do not like to appear "weak". In other words, yes, there is often political stagecraft and so forth, but the level of palpable desperation to stop Trump goes far beyond something that either side would agree to "script". Too many major issues are being brought up that normally would be considered "off limits" for a "dog and pony show". Evolution 4.0 information indicates that he has officially become "Putin level dangerous" (in a good way).
The possibility of Trump running as an independent (as Evolution 4.0 indicated as early as October of 2015) still remains a very real option. In that instance we would say all comparisons to "Germany 1936" would be pretty darn accurate. Instead of Trump representing a political party, he then represents something far greater. He would be representative of an ideology, a mentality, and ultimately a movement. Dangerous, dangerous, and very dangerous.
Therefore it is in the best interest of "the establishment" to "deal with the monster they created". In terms of maintaining anything that might resemble the GOP, dealing with Trump (or paying him an absurdly large sum of money) to "go away" is about the only viable options. Speaking of "the establishment", we have sufficient information indicating that Trump might be representative of a completely new "establishment" though we are not going to speculate on what that might be at this time.
Potential Outcome 2: Trump wins the convention (non brokered) and continues on his rampage through the general election cycle.
Trump wins. Again. This means he gets to take his "fiscal conservative / social libertarian / foreign policy authoritarian" show on the road so to speak. In terms of potential running mates, we are still indicating that despite the Ted Cruz endorsement, Carley Fiorina might be ideal. He almost has to intentionally select a "dud" VP as another means of ensuring his own safety. (For those that were thinking shades of Kennedy, Regan, etc.) Lest we forget that Trump is a New Yorker and has had to deal with some "interesting" folks shall we say. Reputations aside, we have reason to believe his "goon squads" have "goon squads". One does not survive in New York business as long as he did without such. (As they say in New York... "ehy, dings happen ta dose dat dont have eez best in-ta-rest en mind").
Based upon our research, not as much of the GOP is against his running as he might think. There is smaller, core group of what would be considered "neo-cons" that are, but there are certainly established GOP officials that are all in favor of his success. That’s where the "party split in two" notion we mentioned in a Wirehaus (and commentary) piece comes from.
If he does win the nomination to run on the GOP ticket, we forecast that it is entirely possible that Bernie Sanders becomes the sacrificial lamb to Trump's unstoppable onslaught(even as a VP on a Clinton ticket). In other words, throw Sanders in front of Trump to at least try and gauge his general election style as compared to his primary cycle style. We also forecast that the end of the Clinton political family career if he gets to Hillary. We know that does not sound "politically atheistic" but the reality of the situation is, the kind of damage he can do to that entire family pales in comparison to what they can do to him. Side note: here is how we can gauge if we are seeing "dog and pony show" stage craft or "the real thing". If for any reason Hillary "drops out" or "for any possible reason" does not proceed forward... then we are witnessing the real deal.
In any case, Trump making it through to the general election level means that by default his voter base (in terms of popular votes) grow. He would be in an environment with no competition on any of his core issues. Political strategists would liken what trump has done to the GOP thus far as "team killing" to use a video game term. Truly scorched earth mentality.
In all honestly we have not yet run the figures to see the possible general outcome of said election Trump/VP vs Hillary/Sanders. We have been more interested in the potential non-political effects such as national sentiment, the result of any potential "voter fraud" accusations, etc. After all, once again lets call it as we see it. His voter base is looking more like a torch and pitchfork mob every day.
Possible Outcome 3: Brokered Convention: Trump not selected as nominee, he returns to being a professional billionaire and the ultimate political pundit. Ultimately begins forming truly independent third party.
Surprise, he wins again. Let us not forget that we are talking about Donald Trump (who despite overstating his income once or twice) is still Donald Trump (a name synonymous with wealth). In the event of a brokered convention whereupon he is not chosen as the nominee, and he chooses instead to return to being Donald Trump for a living, he is also dangerous. Dangerous in the sense that he becomes the ultimate source of political, geopolitical, and economic "told ya so's". In doing so he would not only retain his existing voter base, but have another number of years to start building something truly independent. Once again, for those thinking "Germany 1936", please give yourself 100 bonus points.
We know as the result of his running for office as he has, the man has become a media juggernaut. In a very short period of time, his manner of delivering information and messages have become iconic. Even if he drops out of the race entirely and as we said, goes back to being Donald Trump for a living... guess what? There is still a 24 hour news cycle in which he will invariably spend 4 years issuing legitimate "told ya so-s" and would also have every opportunity imaginable to build his third, independent party. He would also have a lot of momentum to do so. Then its "Trump + many more Trump-like candidates" that would likely come from private sector as well as both sides of the "isle". They would give him the chance to build an army.
Summary
In the event of a non-trump win, the effects of the GER will be much more unpredictable. Though tough to cover in our shorter, commentary pieces, we have Evolution 4.0 information suggesting that Trump is a "BRICS / new-establishment" candidate. In other words, despite all his rhetoric about "self funding" his campaign, there are wealthy, international interests, that have a vested interested in seeing him win. The kind of interests that know that nationalism is only a pit-stop (purge) on the way to global prosperity.
